Total of 100,000 jobs affected
According to figures from the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, short IWH) around 6,600 employees in the German logistics sector could lose their jobs if an unregulated Brexit occurs. This was reported by the newspaper Deutsche Verkehrs Zeitung (DVZ).
Scientists from the IWH and the Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg have jointly created a simulation in which the job effects of a hard Brexit and the resulting decline in exports were determined. The figures do not include other dangers, such as a decline in the willingness to invest.
The impact was calculated based on the total number of employees. Land transport would be most affected, with the loss of 2,580 jobs. This is followed by the sector “Warehousing and support services for transport” with around 2,450 employees (about 0.4 percent). About 1,390 employees (0.3 percent) could lose their jobs in postal and courier services. In the air freight segment, 140 employees (0.3 per cent) will have to worry about their jobs and in the ship transport segment about 80 jobs could be lost.
For the simulation calculation, the authors assumed a 25 percent decline in imports. This value corresponds to current scientific estimations. Using a formula, it was possible to calculate the extent to which the import slump affected the respective industries and countries. The data from the World Input Output Database (WIOD), which documents world trade linkages, were used for this purpose. A total of 100,000 cross-sectoral companies in Germany could be endangered.