Increased EU trade contributes significantly to the increase
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) published the values of the “Kiel Trade Indicator” on November 7. This analyzes the trade of 75 countries worldwide and forecasts increases or decreases in trade with the help of real-time ship movement data.
According to the Kiel Institute, global trade increased by 2% in October 2023 compared to September 2023, with EU trade in particular contributing to this increase.
Vincent Stamer, Head of the Kiel Trade Indicator, states: “The figures for global trade are stronger than they have been for a long time, with comparable growth only achieved in March of this year.”
According to the institute’s data, EU exports rose by 2.5% and EU imports by 2.4%.
The figures for Germany also improved, as exports increased by 1.8% compared to September. Imports, however, fell by 0.2 percent.
“It is quite surprising that the good figures are being driven by EU trade of all things, where economic output has recently shrunk. Its five largest economies – Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands – may have increased their exports in October according to the indicator values, which is a very positive sign at the start of the fourth quarter,” adds Stamer.
Container shipping in the Panama Canal
Despite the declining water level in the Panama Canal, there are currently no serious obstructions to container shipping. There are currently 110 container ships in congestion, mainly tankers and bulk carriers.
The congestion has decreased slightly in recent months. Due to the low water level, the canal authority has reduced the number of daily cargo ship passages to 25; at full capacity, around 38 ships could sail on the canal every day.
“From the container shipping side, nothing stands in the way of good Christmas business this year, the limiting factor is likely to be the rather gloomy economic outlook and continuing inflation,” says Stamer.