Kiel Trade Indicator March 2022
According to the latest data update of the Kiel Trade Indicator from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), the war in Ukraine has negatively impacted the trade figures of almost all economies and put a significant strain on global trade as a whole. According to the Kiel Trade Indicator for March, global trade is expected to decline by 2.8 percent compared to the previous month.
“Real dislocations caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s sanctions, as well as high uncertainty among companies with ties to Russia, are noticeably setting back March trade,” says Vincent Stamer, head of the Kiel Trade Indicator.
March trade of almost all economies with negative values
The Kiel Trade Indicator shows negative values for March trade of almost all economies.
Compared to the previous month, exports in Germany are expected to fall by 3.7 percent and imports by 3.2 percent. Declines of 5.6 percent in exports and 3.4 percent in imports are also expected for the EU. In addition, U.S. exports are likely to fall by 3.4 percent and imports by 0.6 percent.
A sharper fall in trade is expected for Russia. Exports are likely to fall 5.0 percent and imports 9.7 percent. As Stamer goes on to say, the sanctions imposed by the West are apparently having an effect, and in the process there is a tightening supply of goods in Russia. In addition, transportation by sea as well as by road is being restricted, which is responsible for the sharp drop in Russia’s imports, he says.
About Ukraine, the IfW says that it is all but closed off from international maritime trade. No large container ship has called at Ukraine’s most important port, Odessa on the Black Sea, since the war began.
China is expected to see a 0.9 percent increase in imports and a 0.9 percent decrease in exports. “The lockdown of the Shanghai metropolitan area, where mainly electronic goods are produced for export, is not yet clearly reflected in the trade figures for March. Probably also because the port continues to operate there,” Stamer said.
In the end, the IfW states that currently around twelve percent of all goods shipped worldwide are stuck. Last year, the figure was only higher in two months.