HWWI Commodity Price Index rises in July
– Sub-index for energy raw materials increases by 7.9% (US dollar basis).
– Sub-index for industrial raw materials increases by 0.4%.
– Sub-index for food and beverages falls by 0.2%.
(Hamburg, August 14, 2023) The HWWI Commodity Price Index rebounded in July (+6.3%) after a declining trend had been observed since the beginning of the year. However, in July, the index remained significantly (-41.6%) below the value of July 2022..
The increase in the overall index was primarily driven by the sub-index for energy raw materials, which rose by 7.9%. The other two sub-indices, on the other hand, showed little change. The sub-index for industrial raw materials increased by 0.4% in July, while the sub-index for food and beverages decreased by 0.2%.
Sub-index for energy raw materials: Prices for crude oil and natural gas are rising
The sub-index for natural gas rose by double digits in July, specifically by 11%, after observing falling gas prices since September 2022. Currently, the US gas price is approximately at the level of autumn 2021, and the sub-index is significantly down (-66.9%) compared to the values of the previous year.
Similarly, contrary to the declining trend since the beginning of the year, crude oil prices saw an increase in July (+7.5%). The sub-index for crude oil was thus 23.3% lower in July compared to the value of the previous year.
The sub-index for coal also increased in July (+2.1%), albeit less pronouncedly than the indices for natural gas and crude oil. This sub-index, too, was significantly down (-67.8%) compared to the value from one year ago.
Overall, the sub-index of energy raw materials increased by 7.9% in July (Euro basis: -5.8%) to 195.5 points (Euro basis: 202.4 points).
Little changes in industrial raw materials
The sub-index for industrial raw materials increased by 0.4% in July after declining by 0.9% in June. It was 9.1% lower compared to the value in July 2022.
The marginal increase in the industrial raw material sub-index was driven by agricultural raw materials (textiles, wood, pulp). The corresponding sub-index rose by 3.2% in July but remained 19.6% below the value of the previous year.
On the other hand, the sub-index for non-ferrous metals (-0.3%) and the sub-index for iron ore and steel scrap (-0.7%) decreased slightly.
The industrial raw material index reached a value of 114.7 points in July (Euro basis: 118.6). It decreased by an average of 0.4% during the month (Euro basis: -1.6%), resulting in it being 9.1% lower (Euro basis: -16.3%) than the previous year.
Similarly, there were hardly any changes in the index for food and beverages
The sub-index for food and beverages decreased slightly by 0.2% in July compared to the previous month, placing it 6.9% below the value of the previous year.
Within the index, however, prices developed quite differently. While the sub-index for grains decreased by 3.8% and the sub-index for beverages fell by 3% in July, the sub-index for oilseeds and oils increased by 8.1%.
The price of soybean oil increased significantly again, by 21.3% as in the previous month. One reason for this is the decrease in cultivation area by approximately 5% compared to the previous year. The price of sunflower oil also rose by 14.5%. The scarcity of supply due to the situation in Ukraine continues to be noticeable. Additionally, there is an expectation of increasing global consumption. The price of palm oil also saw a significant increase compared to the previous month (+13.9%).
Overall, the index for food and beverages decreased by an average of 0.2% during the month (Euro basis: -2.2%) and was recorded at 148.8 points (Euro basis: 153.7 points).
Source: www.hwwi.org