German foreign trade stagnates
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) published the values of the “Kiel Trade Indicator” on December 6. This analyzes the trade of 75 countries worldwide and predicts increases or decreases in trade with the help of real-time ship movement data. A special algorithm uses artificial intelligence to convert this data into values.
According to the Kiel Institute, global trade fell by 0.9% in December 2023 compared to October 2023. German foreign trade in particular contributed to this development.
Vincent Stamer, head of the Kiel Trade Indicator, states: “German foreign trade has basically only been growing since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic because prices are rising. Adjusted for inflation, exports and imports have been more or less flatlining for years.”
Europe
According to the institute’s data, EU exports rose by 1.4% and EU imports by 1.1%.
In contrast, the figures for Germany show a deterioration. Exports rose by just 0.7% compared to October, while imports actually fell by 1.1%.
“Based on the Kiel Trade Indicator data, there is no improvement in sight in the short term. There is unlikely to be any Christmas spirit in German foreign trade due to the weak economy and high interest rates,” adds Stamer.
China and USA
IfW Kiel reports that the USA recorded a slight increase of 0.1% in exports and 2.1% in imports.
The indicator values point to a 0.6% increase in exports and a 2.6% decline in imports in China.
Challenges in the Red Sea
According to the figures, there was also a decline in the number of standard containers shipped worldwide. Compared to October, the number has fallen by more than 1% and is therefore below the 14 million mark.
A decline in the number of standard containers shipped was recorded in the Red Sea in particular. Based on the figures for recent years, 600,000 standard containers were expected, but only around 500,000 standard containers were transported in November.
Stamer pointed out that terrorist attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea could place a renewed burden on global trade in the future. This could be the case in particular if freight rates rise due to risk premiums. In the long term, shipowners could switch to alternative routes or means of transportation. He emphasized that over 10 percent of global trade passes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, and disruptions in this region could have a significant impact on the global movement of goods.
Source: www.kloepfel-consulting.com