HWWI commodity price index continues to fall
- HWWI overall index falls by 13.1% (US dollar basis)
- Natural gas price falls by 27.6%
- Crude oil price rises slightly by 2%
(Hamburg, November 11, 2022) In October, the HWWI commodity price index fell by a total
of 13.1% compared to September. All three sub-indices (food and beverages, industrial raw
materials and energy raw materials) declined. The index for energy raw materials
decreased most significantly. The other two indices fell only slightly: the industrial raw
materials index by 2.6% and the food and beverages index by 2.3%.
Index for energy raw materials: Price decline for gas and coal
The moderate temperatures, the filled storage facilities and the subdued economic outlook
initially continued to have a dampening effect on the gas price. After a slight decrease in
September, the gas price fell by 27.6% in October. This means that it is currently only
0.6% above the price in October 2021.
The price of coal also declined. It fell by -12.7% compared to the previous month but is still
56.1% higher than the price in the previous year.
The price of crude oil rose slightly by 2.0% in October and was thus 9.7% higher than in the
month of the previous year.
“After the index for energy raw materials had weakened a little from the beginning of October,
it is rising again at the current margin, driven mainly by the rise in the oil price.
There are no signs of a real easing on the energy markets at the moment”, says
Marina Eurich, raw materials and economic expert at the HWWI.
Overall, the energy raw materials sub-index fell by 14.4% in October (euro basis: -13.7%) to
335.9 points (euro basis: 392.0 points).
Industrial raw materials index: Prices continue to fall
All three sub-indices of the industrial raw materials index (agricultural raw materials index,
non-ferrous metals, iron ore and steel scrap index) also fell in October. In total industrial raw
materials index fell by 2.6%. This continues the downward trend in industrial raw material
prices that has been going on for several months.
Prices for agricultural raw materials fell by 4.9%. The continuing fall in the price of cotton is
striking. As in the previous month, the price of cotton is in a significant fall, which intensified
in October. Demand in the spinning mills continues to decline due to the economic situation.
The background is falling demand for textiles due to weaker consumer behavior and higher
prices in other areas, such as energy.
The downward trend from September is also continuing for the timber price. One important
reason is probably the cooling of the construction sector, which is caused by the economic
situation and higher interest rates.
Prices for iron ore and steel scrap fell by 4.1% in October, and prices for non-ferrous metals
by 0.9%. Overall, the industrial raw materials index was 20.2% lower in October than in the
previous month. 20.2% lower than in the same month of the previous year.
The industrial raw materials index fell in October by 2.6% (euro basis: 1.9%) to 117.2 points
(euro basis: 136.5 points).
Index for food and beverages falls slightly
The sub-index for food and beverages fell in October – after a very slight increase in
September – by 2.3 %. This was a continuation of the downward trend since the middle of
the year. In October, the index was 10.4 % above the previous year’s value of October 2021.
After the price of coffee had risen in the previous months due to bad weather conditions in
Brazil, the most important coffee exporting country, a slight decline was recorded in October.
Brazil recently experienced the worst drought in 90 years. This was followed by the worst
frost in decades.
Overall, the index for food and beverages rose by an average of 2.3% for the month
(euro basis: 1.5%) and stood at 155.5 points (euro basis: 180.9 points).
Source: www.hwwi.org